1. Political Background: Adjustment of China’s Export Tax Policy
In early January 2026, China’s Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration officially announced a significant adjustment to the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and battery-related products.
The key points of this new regulation include:
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From 1 April 2026, the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be completely abolished.
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For battery and energy storage products, the export tax rebate will be reduced from 9% to 6% between April and December 2026, and fully eliminated from 1 January 2027.
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The affected product categories include solar modules, solar cells, energy storage systems, batteries, as well as key upstream materials and components.
This policy change will effectively lead to a noticeable increase in export costs for Chinese manufacturers.
2. Market Impact: Why Prices May Rise in 2026
The reduction or removal of export tax rebates eliminates an important cost buffer for manufacturers. In an industry already characterized by thin margins, rising energy and logistics costs, and high capital investment, this represents a structural shift.
Based on current assessments, the following effects are expected:
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Rising production and export costs from Q2 2026 onward
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Limited ability for manufacturers to fully absorb these additional costs internally
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Gradual transfer of part of the increased costs to international markets
3. Price Outlook for 2026
Taking current political and economic conditions into account, the following price development is anticipated:
Short-term (Q1–Q2 2026)
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Prices are expected to remain relatively stable due to existing inventory levels and previously secured supply contracts.
Mid-term (from Q2/Q3 2026 onward)
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A moderate price increase is likely for photovoltaic products, particularly solar modules and battery storage systems.
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The expected price increase in export markets is estimated at approximately 5%–10%, depending on product category and supply structure.
Despite this trend, China will remain the world’s most important and competitive supplier of photovoltaic products. Demand in Europe—especially in Germany—is expected to stay strong.
4. Implications for the German Market
For the German market, these developments are likely to result in:
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A slight increase in import prices from the second half of 2026
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Continued international price competitiveness, despite rising costs
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Growing importance of long-term partnerships, stable supply chains, and efficient project planning
5. Greenlimon Technologies’ Commitment
At Greenlimon Technologies GmbH, we closely monitor market developments and maintain close cooperation with our manufacturing and logistics partners.
Despite the increasing cost pressure across the industry, our clear objectives remain:
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To maintain price stability wherever possible
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To continuously optimize internal processes and supply chains
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To minimize price increases for our customers
Especially in a market environment with rising prices, we are committed to safeguarding our customers’ interests and continuing to provide reliable, economically attractive photovoltaic solutions.
Greenlimon Technologies stands for transparency, long-term partnerships, and sustainable value creation—even in a changing market environment.
